JPFAIDXThe short version
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk
PT Japfa Comfeed is Indonesia's second-largest integrated poultry and animal-feed producer, running the protein chain from feed mill to branded meat; its earnings swing with a broiler-price cycle now near a record high.
The shares peaked near Rp2,790 in early February 2026, fell to Rp1,780 by June as the poultry tape wobbled, and have recovered to Rp2,210 — still below the 2025 year-end close.
Mkt cap Rp25.7TP/E FY27E 5.4×
Rp2,210
Share price
Rp60.7tn
FY2025 revenue
10.2%
Operating margin
~8 kg
Poultry per person
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Snapshot
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk in numbers
Price
Rp2,210.00as of 2026-08-03
Mkt cap
Rp25.7T
3m ADV
Rp41.5B
| Year to Dec (IDR) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 51.2T | 55.8T | 60.7T | 65.5K | 70.6K | 77.8K |
| EBITDA | – | – | – | 7.8K | 8.2K | 8.3K |
| EBIT | 2.2T | 5.1T | 6.2T | 6.8K | 7.1K | 7.4K |
| EBIT margin | 4.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% |
| EPS | 80.00 | 260.00 | 344.00 | 383.06 | 405.65 | 424.14 |
| P/E | 27.6× | 8.5× | 6.4× | 5.8× | 5.4× | 5.2× |
| FCF yield | 1.4% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 23.5% | 15.8% | 19.0% |
Consensus: S&P Capital IQ (CapIQ) · as of 2026-08-03Derived from run data; ratios use the latest price.
IThe business
The business
One integrated chain, feed mill to supermarket shelf
FY2025 segment sales
Commercial farmRp 24.5T40%
Animal feedRp 15.8T25%
Processing & consumerRp 10.7T17%
Breeding & otherRp 5.8T9%
AquacultureRp 5.1T8%
Six segments gross to Rp61.9tn before eliminations; the poultry chain is close to 90% of sales.
- Vertically integrated. JPFA mills feed, hatches day-old chicks, raises broilers, then processes and brands the meat, with parallel aquaculture and beef-cattle arms. It is Indonesia's second-largest producer by feed, chick and carcass capacity.
- A price-taker at both ends. Commercial farming — live broilers sold at spot prices — is the biggest and most volatile slice; feed is the smaller, steadier, higher-margin anchor. Profits swing with broiler prices, corn and soybean-meal costs, and the rupiah.
- Family-controlled. The Santosa family holds 55.4% through Singapore's Japfa Pte Ltd; the public float is 43.8%. After the family took the group's Singapore parent private in 2025, JPFA is the only listed window into the franchise.
Where the profit sits
Feed passes its costs through; the broiler farm is where profit swings
Segment operating margin
Feed holds near 8% through the cycle; commercial farming crossed from loss to ~6%.
- The steady anchor. Animal feed held an 8.2% / 8.2% / 7.1% / 8.7% margin across 2022–2025, because feed prices are reset to pass raw-material and rupiah moves into the selling price. Corn is sourced locally under a government mandate.
- The swing. Commercial farming lost Rp744bn in 2022 and Rp611bn in 2023, then earned Rp1,589bn in 2024 and Rp1,796bn in 2025. A few points of broiler margin on Rp29tn of sales is most of the gap between a trough and a record.
- Why it matters. The cyclicality lives in a few points of margin, not in demand — so the durability of that broiler recovery is what the whole valuation turns on.
The market
A protein-short market that eats more chicken as incomes rise
Poultry eaten per person (kg/year)
Indonesia (~8 kg) sits near the bottom of the Asian range — the structural headroom the bull case rests on.
- Structural runway. Indonesians eat only ~8 kg of poultry a head, a fraction of Malaysia's ~50. With a population near 280m and a growing middle class, consumption has climbed ~2.6% a year with income — a slow escalator, not a step-change.
- A policy kicker. President Prabowo's free-meal programme (MBG) puts protein-rich meals into schoolchildren and mothers, and had reached 60m+ people by mid-2026. Its 2026 budget was cut a fifth to Rp268tn, so it warrants conservative sizing — upside, not the base case.
- Number two, by design. JPFA is Indonesia's second-largest integrated player behind CPIN, competing on scale and cost in a fragmented broiler market rather than on brand.
IIThe record
The track record
Revenue rose every year for a decade; profit round-tripped, then hit a record
FY2018 → FY2025as reported · Rp
RevenueRp60.7T+9%
Operating margin10.2%+1.1pp
Net incomeRp4.0T+33%
EPSRp344.00+32%
Free cash flowRp2.5T−21%
Ten-year revenue, margin, earnings and free cash flow — full statements in the Metrics tab.
- A margin story, not a demand story. Revenue never fell — from Rp27tn in 2016 to Rp60.7tn in 2025 — but the operating margin swung from 11.7% to a 4.3% trough in 2023 and back to 10.2%. Profit to owners collapsed to Rp0.93tn, then quadrupled to a record Rp4.00tn (EPS Rp344).
- The recovery carried into 2026. First-quarter net sales rose 24% and profit to owners roughly tripled year-on-year, running ahead of the plateau consensus models.
- ROE near the cycle top. Return on equity reached 21.4% in FY2025, up from 6.7% at the 2023 trough — operating leverage on a barely-changed top line as broiler prices recovered against feed cost.
Cash and the balance sheet
The record earnings convert to cash, and the balance sheet deleveraged into it
Operating cash flow, free cash flow and net profit (Rp tn)
Free cash flow turned firmly positive in 2024–25 after years of capacity spend.
- Real cash, over the cycle. Across 2021–2025 JPFA generated Rp14.4tn of operating cash flow against Rp12.1tn of profit — about 1.19x conversion. Free cash flow reached Rp3.2tn in 2024 and Rp2.5tn in 2025 after Rp2.5tn of capex.
- Deleveraged into the record. Total liabilities and equity are each near Rp20tn — a 1.0x ratio, down from 1.4x in 2023 — with net debt of ~Rp8.3tn, about 0.4x equity. Solvency is not the near-term question.
- One optical wrinkle. The current ratio dipped to 1.3x because the US$350m sustainability bond was reclassified to current before its 23 March 2026 maturity; it was pre-funded with a Rp3.6tn cash build and committed facilities, and stripping it out returns the ratio to ~2.0x.
IIIThe story now
What's happening now
Earnings at a record, but the multiple is falling — not rising
Down ~36% from the February peak to the June trough, then a partial recovery.
- A round trip in six months. The shares peaked near Rp2,790 in February, fell to Rp1,780 by June — briefly ~1.1x book — and recovered to Rp2,210, still below the 2025 year-end close.
- The multiple compressed on rising earnings. The market now pays about 6.4x trailing earnings, less than the 14.8x it paid at the 2023 trough, even though EPS has risen 4.3-fold since. Consensus models a plateau, and 1Q2026 came in ahead of it.
- Two readings fit. Either a founder-controlled cyclical is mispriced on distrust of the cycle, or a ~6x multiple on peak earnings is exactly what an efficient market pays before the next rupiah of profit falls.
The core of the debate
The cheapness and the risk share one source: a single supply-managed segment
Poultry profit: a steady core and a cyclical layer (Rp tn)
Feed + processing is the annuity; breeding + commercial farming is the supply-managed wager that was negative in 2023.
- At Rp2,210 JPFA is ~6.4x record and only ~8.5x mid-cycle earnings because its whole margin cycle sits in one commercial-farm unit that swung from a Rp611bn loss in 2023 to a Rp1,796bn profit in 2025 — a ~46%-of-poultry-profit layer whose FY2024-25 recovery the company credits to government import quotas and culling — while the feed margin barely moved from 8.2% to 8.7%.
- What it means for the price. An 8% mid-cycle margin on FY2025 revenue yields ~Rp260 EPS, about 24% below the Rp344 record — lifting the multiple from ~6.4x to ~8.5x. Cheap, but reasonable rather than compelling.
- The other side. Supply management may have structurally lifted the through-cycle floor: the April-2025 culling had no material adverse impact and 1Q2026 profit ran ~2.7x year-on-year, so ~10% margins could be closer to the new normal and ~6x the right multiple.
Related-party channel
A seventh of the cost base is priced by a family affiliate, unbenchmarked
Feed bought through Annona Pte Ltd
| Year | Annona buy (Rp tn) | % of COGS |
|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 7.46 | 20.2% |
| FY2022 | 9.47 | 22.9% |
| FY2023 | 8.12 | 18.6% |
| FY2024 | 8.01 | 18.0% |
| FY2025 | 7.05 | 14.8% |
The channel's spend tracks the global grain cycle and is shrinking as a share of cost.
- Why it matters. JPFA buys ~Rp7tn of imported feed raw material a year — about a seventh of cost of goods sold — through Annona Pte Ltd, a Singapore affiliate under the same family control. The audited note lists the volumes but publishes no price to judge them against.
- The indirect check passes. Annona's spend rose with the 2022 grain spike and fell as prices normalised, behaving like an arm's-length pass-through, and it is shrinking as a share of cost. Record group margins are hard to square with a large hidden markup.
- What can't be closed. A steady few-percent markup would move with prices too and would not show as a trend break. Every 1-point wedge is worth ~Rp55bn after tax (1.4% of profit); a 5% wedge, ~Rp275bn, or 6.9%. A haircut to earnings quality, not to solvency.
Control and the minority
The family control that aligns you is also the take-out you must price
What a JPFA take-out could cost (Rp/share)
Book value (1.0x NAV)
Rp1,605
Parent precedent (NAV +12.7%)
Rp1,809
Current market (~1.4x book)
Rp2,210
Precedent premium to market (+34.8%)
Rp2,979
Buying above book means a NAV-referenced bid would price below today's Rp2,210.
- Aligned, pro rata. The Santosa family owns 55.4% and takes the same dividend per share as the float; board pay is modest at Rp189bn (4.7% of profit) with almost no executive equity. The skin in the game is real — but it is family, not management, skin.
- The precedent points one way. In 2025 the family took the Singapore parent private at ~12.7% above net asset value. JPFA trades at ~1.4x book, so a take-out on the same NAV logic would land below today's price — the ~1.4x book is not a margin of safety here.
- What protects the minority. Indonesia's going-private regime requires an independent-shareholder vote and an appraiser's floor price. But the genuinely transparent float is nearer 28% than 44% — a third of it sits in opaque Singapore private-bank accounts.
IVThe price
Valuation
Most of the cheapness is the sector's, not JPFA's own
Sector leader CPIN — year-end P/E
The whole Indonesian poultry complex de-rated from 20–35x to single digits; JPFA sits mid-pack.
- A sector-wide re-rating. Charoen Pokphand (CPIN), the largest and best-capitalised peer, commanded 20–35x through 2016–2023 and has compressed to ~7x trailing today. Single digits is now the sector's resting state, not a JPFA anomaly.
- JPFA sits below the leader for reasons. At ~5x trailing it trades under CPIN's ~7x on three real differences: more leverage (the US$350m bond), a profit mix that swings more with broilers, and the unbenchmarked Annona channel. Malindo, the smallest, trades at ~3x.
- Neither cheapest nor dearest. Nothing in the group is expensive; the discount JPFA wears is mostly the sector's and partly its own — the levers a re-rating would have to move.
The valuation debate
At one price, five earnings assumptions — from 5x to 28x
Implied P/E at Rp2,210 by earnings basis
The debate lives in the band between mid-cycle (~8.5x) and consensus plateau (~5.8x).
- It hangs on which year is 'normal.' Capitalise the 2023 trough (EPS Rp79) and the stock is ~28x; capitalise the hot trailing twelve months (~Rp442) and it's 5x. Neither extreme is the right anchor.
- Mid-cycle is the defensible number. An 8% operating margin — the decade average — puts EPS near Rp260 and the multiple at ~8.5x: a reasonable, not compelling, price for a controlled cyclical with a related-party input channel.
- The downside is bounded by the balance sheet. On mid-cycle earnings the shares need no re-rating to avoid loss, and the ~1.0x liabilities-to-equity means the bear case is lower returns, not insolvency. The ~6.5% dividend yield flexes with the cycle.
What the market asks
The street sees 43% upside; the market pays a trough multiple
Rp3,168
Consensus target+43% vs Rp2,210
Strong Buy
13 analysts
6.5%
Dividend yieldflexes with the cycle
~6.4x
Trailing P/Ebelow the 2023 trough's 14.8x
Consensus backs the durable-earnings case; today's price does not.
- Consensus backs the durable-earnings case. Thirteen analysts carry a Strong Buy and a Rp3,168 mean target, ~43% above the price — a bet that earnings hold above mid-cycle and the sector multiple recovers some lost ground. Today's price assumes neither.
- No short-interest signal. Indonesia has no public short-interest regime, so positioning offers no separate tell; the debate is settled by margins, not by the tape.
- The next hard evidence is dated. The 30 June 2026 half-year statement — due shortly — should show whether feed and commercial-farm margins held into Q2, a clean settlement of the US$350m bond, and whether the Annona purchase share drifted.
What to watch
Cheap on record earnings if the supply-managed margin holds; correctly discounted for a peak if it reverts.
- 01The 30 June 2026 half-year statement: whether feed's ~8% and the commercial-farm margin held through Q2, and a clean settlement of the US$350m bond.
- 02Indonesian broiler and day-old-chick farm-gate prices against corn and soybean-meal cost — and whether culling and import quotas persist into H2 2026.
- 03The Annona purchase share climbing again while feed-commodity prices fall would break the arm's-length pass-through read.
- 04Any unusual treasury build-up or a jump in the 2% buyback mandate — the tells of a NAV-referenced take-out.
This distills a guided study of PT Japfa Comfeed built chapter by chapter — segment economics, the related-party channel, valuation and control.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-08-03 · For information, not investment advice.