Visible Alpha

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 5 brokers · 318 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-20.

Broker Models

Five brokers model Japfa as a poultry-cycle protein producer that has already made its earnings jump: diluted EPS steps up sharply in FY2026, then flattens, as net-income growth decelerates from 16.3% to 7.8% to 1.8% and margins ease from their FY2026 peak. The cleaner, higher-conviction call is the balance sheet, which delevers from 1.38x net debt/EBITDA toward net cash. The sharpest disagreement sits in the FY2027–FY2028 mid-cycle, where diluted EPS fans out from roughly Rp102 to Rp461.

The earnings step-up is already in the numbers

Source: derived from vendor data.

The modelled earnings path is front-loaded. Diluted EPS climbs from Rp301 in the FY2025 actual to Rp353 in FY2026, then barely moves — Rp359 in FY2027 and Rp355 in FY2028. In growth terms the deceleration is unambiguous: consensus net income rises 16.3% into FY2025 and 7.8% in FY2026, then just 1.8% in FY2027, with the FY2028 mean actually dipping (though that reflects one bearish model — see the dispersion below). This is a business the models expect to earn its keep, not to compound.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Margins roll over after FY2026

Every modelled margin line makes the same shape — a peak in FY2026, then a gentle fade. Gross margin runs 20.6%, 20.9%, 20.4%, 19.6% across FY2025 to FY2028; the EBITDA and operating margins trace the same arc, and net margin eases from 6.63% back to 5.96%. Return on equity follows the earnings down, from 19.7% in FY2026 to 15.6% by FY2028. Nothing here suggests structural margin expansion — the brokers see the FY2026 cyclical high giving way to normalisation.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The cleaner story is the balance sheet

Where the earnings call is contested, the deleveraging is not. Net debt/EBITDA falls from 1.38x in FY2025 to about 0.3x by FY2028, and gross debt/EBITDA from 1.65x to 0.48x — with net debt itself modelled to cross into a net cash position by FY2027. Rising free cash flow funds a dividend that holds a roughly 40% payout even as the balance sheet cleans up. The direction is shared, but note the coverage: the leverage ratios beyond FY2026 rest on a single broker, and the two brokers who model net debt disagree widely on the timing of the crossover.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Consumer leads the top line; feed still carries the profit

The growth engine and the profit engine are not the same segment. Consumer products is the fastest grower — up about 14.4% in FY2026 and compounding to the largest four-year gain of any division — yet its modelled operating profit is essentially flat. Feed, growing more slowly, is where the profit accretes, with segment operating income rising across the horizon. Two negatives are worth naming: Aquaculture profit slips, and Trading is modelled at a persistent loss after FY2025. The segment operating-income lines are the thinnest in the feed — one broker beyond FY2025 — so treat the split as indicative.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Source: derived from vendor data.

What lifted FY2026: day-old-chick prices re-rated

The FY2026 earnings step-up has a clear driver in the operating detail. The modelled average selling price for day-old chicks jumps roughly 56% between FY2025 and FY2026 — from about Rp3827 to Rp5961 — before settling into slower gains. Feed prices firm more modestly and feed volumes keep growing, but the poultry-price recovery is what the models lean on for the FY2026 margin peak. These price and volume lines are two-broker estimates.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Where the models split: the mid-cycle call

Headline consensus is tight; the real debate lives in the out-years. By FY2028 the four EPS models span Rp102 to Rp461 around a Rp428 median — the widest fan in the feed — and modelled net-income growth ranges from a 61.3% decline to a 16.4% gain. Free-cash-flow margin and return on equity split the same way once the cycle turns. The disagreement is not about this year's poultry prices but about how long the up-cycle holds.

Source: derived from vendor data.

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